Europe is being forced to confront a reality that, until recently, many leaders preferred not to name outright: the continent may no longer be able to rely on the security assumptions that defined the post–Cold War era. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, mounting pressure from Washington, and increasingly blunt warnings from military leaders, the European Union is moving with unusual urgency to prepare for the possibility of a much wider conflict.
For decades, Europe’s security model rested on three pillars: diplomacy, economic interdependence, and the protective umbrella of the United States through NATO. That model is now under strain. The war in Ukraine shows no clear end, relations between allies are becoming more transactional, and confidence in automatic American backing is no longer guaranteed. In Brussels, the shift is palpable. Officials speak less about hypothetical risks and more about timelines, logistics, and readiness. The question is no longer whether Europe should prepare for war, but whether it can do so fast enough.
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The sense of pressure did not appear overnight. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered assumptions that large-scale war on the European continent was a relic of history. At the same time, political signals from the United States have grown sharper. Washington has been explicit in its expectation that Europe take far greater responsibility for its own defense, both financially and operationally.
In December, EU leaders agreed on a new €90 billion loan package to support Ukraine, reaffirming their commitment to Kyiv even as domestic pressures grow. Around the same time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a series of defense initiatives aimed at strengthening Europe’s deterrence capacity by 2030. These moves were accompanied by unusually stark rhetoric from global leaders.
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned in early December that Russia was prepared to fight if necessary and suggested there could soon be “no one left to negotiate with.” Shortly after, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a blunt assessment: “We are Russia’s next target.” He warned that an attack on NATO territory could occur within the next five years. Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius echoed that concern, stating that Europe may already have experienced its “last summer of peace.”
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Taken together, the message from Europe’s security establishment is clear. The risk is no longer theoretical, and time is no longer abundant.
Yet public readiness across Europe tells a more complicated story. A recent Euronews poll posed a simple but unsettling question: would you personally fight to defend the EU’s borders? Of nearly 10,000 respondents, 75 percent said no. Only 19 percent said they would be willing to fight, while the remainder were unsure. The results reveal a widening gap between government planning and public sentiment.
Concern varies sharply by geography. Surveys show that fear of Russian aggression is highest in countries closest to Russia. A YouGov poll found that Russian military pressure is viewed as one of the top national threats by 51 percent of respondents in Poland, 57 percent in Lithuania, and 62 percent in Denmark. Across the EU as a whole, “armed conflict” now ranks among the top public anxieties, alongside economic instability and energy security.
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That sense of urgency has translated into action most visibly in Eastern and Northern Europe. Countries such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have moved faster and more decisively than their western counterparts, shaped by geography and historical memory.
Lithuania has begun developing so-called “drone walls” along its borders and is working with Latvia to restore wetlands as natural defensive barriers. Public resilience campaigns, emergency drills, and civil defense exercises have become routine. Lithuania’s Interior Ministry has distributed shelter maps and emergency hotline information to households, while Latvia has introduced mandatory national defense education in schools.
Poland has reinforced its border with Belarus using physical barriers and expanded national security education. In some secondary schools, firearm safety instruction is now part of the curriculum. Finland, Estonia, and Sweden have revived Cold War–era practices by publishing updated civil defense guides explaining how citizens should respond to crises, power outages, evacuations, or wartime conditions. In 2025, Sweden mailed a revised version of its “If Crisis or War Comes” brochure to every household in the country.
Search data reflects this shift in mindset. In countries closest to Russia, online searches such as “nearest shelter” and “what to pack for evacuation” surged throughout 2025, indicating that concern is no longer abstract.
National efforts are being matched by an unprecedented push at the EU level. Brussels has launched what may be the most ambitious defense coordination effort in the union’s history. European defense spending surpassed €300 billion in 2024, and under the proposed 2028–2034 EU budget, an additional €131 billion has been earmarked for aerospace and defense—five times more than in the previous cycle.
Central to this effort is Readiness 2030, a roadmap endorsed by all 27 member states. Its goals are blunt and operational: enable troops and equipment to move across EU borders within three days during peacetime, and within six hours during emergencies. To do that, the EU is working toward a “Military Schengen” system designed to eliminate bureaucratic delays that currently slow down military mobility.
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Around 500 critical infrastructure points—bridges, tunnels, ports, and railways—are being identified for upgrades so they can support heavy military equipment. The estimated cost ranges from €70 to €100 billion, funded through a combination of national budgets and EU programs such as the Connecting Europe Facility.
In 2025, Brussels launched ReArm Europe, a central coordination platform designed to align national defense investments and accelerate industrial capacity. Europe’s defense industry has long been fragmented, with overlapping systems, incompatible equipment, and inefficient procurement. ReArm Europe aims to address those weaknesses directly.
Two tools sit at the heart of the initiative. The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) allocates €1.5 billion for joint research, development, and production, with projects requiring participation from multiple EU countries or Ukraine. The Strategic Armament Financing Envelope (SAFE) provides a €150 billion EU-level loan facility to enable joint weapons procurement at lower cost and faster speed.
Pressure from Washington has only intensified these efforts. A U.S. national security strategy published in December described Europe as a weakened partner and reinforced an “America First” posture. The document echoed long-standing complaints from former President Donald Trump about European defense spending and signaled expectations that Europe assume most of NATO’s conventional defense responsibilities by 2027.
At the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, allies agreed to aim for defense spending equal to 5 percent of GDP by 2035, a target most European countries remain far from meeting. The strategy also criticized Europe’s migration policies and regulatory environment, fueling concerns in Brussels that U.S. security guarantees may no longer be unconditional.
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European officials pushed back quickly. EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, Council President António Costa, and foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas rejected Washington’s assessment, emphasizing that allies do not dictate each other’s democratic choices. Still, the exchange highlighted a growing transatlantic divide over Europe’s long-term strategic autonomy.
Despite rising budgets and political momentum, experts warn that money alone will not solve Europe’s defense challenges. Regulatory bottlenecks, slow procurement cycles, and limited industrial capacity remain serious constraints. Early findings from the EU’s Defence Industrial Readiness Survey confirm long-standing problems with delays and incompatible systems.
Demand, however, is surging. SAFE has already received requests covering nearly 700 projects, with close to €50 billion sought for air defense, ammunition, missiles, drones, and maritime systems. Up to €22.5 billion in pre-financing could be released by early 2026.
Europe is now racing against structural limits, political realities, and time itself. As officials increasingly admit behind closed doors, the era of strategic complacency is over. The only question left is whether Europe can turn urgency into capability before events force the issue.

